More than 120 graduates of MBA programs at the Higher School of Business of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, experts, and entrepreneurs gathered at the school's campus to discuss key IT trends for 2024. The meeting was held as part of the project "Point of View. Open Lectures of the Higher School of Business."
The rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies is currently in the focus of attention of Russian enterprises. Experts from the Higher School of Business and invited experts discussed what to prepare for and what to fear. During the discussion, numerous forecasts and opinions were voiced on how artificial intelligence will affect the Russian economy as a whole and domestic companies in particular.
Evgeny Zaramenskikh, Professor, Head of the Department of Business Informatics at the Higher School of Business of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, presented to the participants the full results of the first large-scale study in Russia "Main Russian IT Trends - 2024", conducted by experts from the Higher School of Business and the "New in Management" project this year. The study involved more than 300 respondents from companies belonging to 14 sectors of the Russian economy, including manufacturing, retail, energy, agriculture, housing and communal services, construction, logistics and transport, etc.
The study showed that artificial intelligence technologies occupy a special place in the development of Russian enterprises. The development of AI-based solutions based on the results of processing responses was recognized as the most researched IT trend. "The greatest attention to artificial intelligence was riveted at the beginning of 2023, and at the time of the survey, just under 30% of companies had managed to implement AI in their activities, however, only 20% of organizations today do not plan to implement AI. At the same time, all companies that already use AI announced plans to increase investment in this area. The greatest expectations regarding the possibilities of using AI today are associated with such areas of activity of companies as operational activities, development and engineering, research, marketing and customer experience," said Evgeny Zaramenskikh.
As it turned out, the perception of AI by Russian business has its own specifics. Foreign consulting and analytical companies today tend to single out narrower trends within artificial intelligence (for example, generative AI, adaptive AI, etc.). However, Russian enterprises consider AI comprehensively, focusing on how a particular AI-based solution can be used by the company. At the same time, it is noted that the stage of practical implementation of certain AI regulation measures has not yet been reached, although issues of AI regulation and delimitation of responsibility are becoming more frequent today.
The meeting participants assessed the capabilities of modern AI. "According to certain parameters, ChatGPT is already superhuman — for example, it has already read more than a person can read in their entire life. It knows all languages, including programming languages, as well as thinking patterns in them and communication patterns. At the same time, ChatGPT has 100 million users today and is no longer accepting new ones. The planning horizon for the next five years shows that the number of users will increase 20 times during this time. The so-called "strong AI" will be able to perform tasks at different levels: from an assistant for document management to developing strategies for large enterprises," shared his opinion Sergey Shumsky, author of the book "Raising Machines" and Director of Strong AI Systems at the Research Center for Applied AI Systems at MIPT. Small business under the leadership of AI is a quite expected reality: if artificial intelligence can read, write, analyze, make forecasts and strategies, rank tasks, it will be able to take over all these processes, including management.
Sergey Shumsky also drew the audience's attention to the cost of technology development: in 10 years, the cost of training has increased a million times, the latest models cost about $100 million. "We are entering a reality where either you have data centers worth billions and the ability to train AI there, or you are out of the game. All developments have moved from universities to large companies due to the factor of financial resources," he noted. Despite this, in the next two years, AI with its own consciousness and free will will be created, the expert believes. Sergey predicts the creation of 2 billion such "personal workers" in 15 years, which will lead to a doubling of global GDP.
Sergey Sherstobitov, CEO of Angara Security, a graduate of the Higher School of Business MBA program in 2015, raised the topic of information security and protection of digital infrastructure for modern Russian companies in his speech. He spoke about the current trends in the information security market in Russia – import substitution of information security solutions, Presidential Decree 250, which is important for the industry, opportunities to enter foreign markets in the current environment, and the legalization of the activities of "white" hackers.
"We are now witnessing or even participating in a global cyber war. The nature of the actions of attackers has changed a lot recently – now, in addition to extortionist attackers, representatives of foreign special services and political hackers are also involved in the attacks. The main goal is to disable the infrastructure. Therefore, cybersecurity is primarily a set of rules that, with the support of specialized specialists, must be observed by all companies for their own safety," Sergey Sherstobitov emphasized.
Alexander Chulapov, Head of Business Sales Support at Datech (Holding T1), spoke about the practical application of AI technologies in IT services that already fill our daily lives today. Among the important trends, Alexander named those related to data processing: data integration and enrichment, working with aggregate experience — the experience of the client, employee and omnichannel, advanced automation and artificial intelligence. "Colleagues talked about generative AI, but in fact, Russian companies have not yet fully unlocked the potential of deep learning. And together with the generative intelligence market, the deep learning market will also grow, becoming, in turn, a tool for generative AI," Alexander Chulapov noted.
Summing up the meeting, the experts emphasized that the main task of the industry today is to create digital sovereignty with the help of innovative IT solutions, and the key question is how companies are ready to fulfill this task, whether there are enough developers.
"Point of View" is one of the educational projects of the Higher School of Business of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, launched in 2023. The project meetings are devoted to topical issues from various areas of business development. Graduates of MBA, EMBA and DBA programs of the Higher School of Business of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, students and teachers of the National Research University Higher School of Economics and other leading universities, and business representatives participate as listeners and experts.
