Chief Technology Expert at Kaspersky Lab, Alexander Gostev, presented scenarios of "gray swans" — possible events that could significantly change the field of cybersecurity in the future. These scenarios occupy an intermediate position between ordinary forecasts and "black swans." They are difficult to model but can seriously affect the development of the industry. Alexander Gostev explained:
Most industry forecasts are based on rational extrapolation — the same threats, the same attack vectors, only on a larger scale. This analysis pursued a different goal. These scenarios are not predictions of what will happen next year, but structured thought experiments about what could happen if some of our basic technical assumptions do not come true.
Key risks include:
- Time desynchronization: possible attacks on NTP (Network Time Protocol) servers will disrupt the accuracy of operations and create risks in the financial sector and information security. Attackers can attack primary sources of time, such as atomic clocks in laboratories or GPS satellites, which will create a new category of systemic digital risks.
- Data loss: outdated data and media may become irretrievably lost, creating a problem of recovering important information.
- Intellectual property: the widespread use of AI will create legal conflicts around patents and copyrights.
- Disappointment in AI: the gap between expectations and the result of investments will lead to doubts about the effectiveness of the technology.
- Cryptography collapse: a sudden scientific discovery could destroy existing encryption methods.
- Cyber ecoterrorism: hidden attacks cause environmental damage by hacking into industrial systems.
- Digital fragmentation: the isolation of national segments of the Internet will make it difficult for the global network to function.
- System failures in the operation of space infrastructure after an extreme solar event.